President Trump fills world leaders with fear: ‘It’s gone from funny to really scary’

Most of the world seems to agree a Donald Trump presidency is a disturbing possibility that would inflict unthinkable damage, Guardian reporters found

Dangerous, foolish, irrational, scary, terrifying, irresponsible, a clown, a disaster. These are just some of the words used to describe the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency by politicians, diplomats and analysts around the world.

As the businessman gave his first major policy address since becoming frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination on Wednesday, Guardian correspondents in Washington and around the globe asked the international community whether it was prepared for the swaggering billionaire to occupy the White House.

Many said they still cannot believe the nation that elected its first black president just eight years ago will now rush to embrace a man who has offended Mexicans, Muslims and others. The possibility that Trump might actually win fills great swaths of the planet with dread with the apparent and notable exception of Vladimir Putins Russia with concerns over everything from trade to the nuclear trigger.

While Trump was delivering his speech in Washington, outlining a doctrine of naked self-interest that would shake the rust off Americas foreign policy, the heads of all the major UN agencies gathered in Vienna, Austria, for a strategy session with secretary general Ban Ki-moon, now in his last eight months in office.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/28/donald-trump-president-world-leaders-foreign-relations

Battle for Florida: Trump and Clinton home in on crucial state as voting begins

The two candidates have differing strategies in a state where turnout among Hispanic voters could sway the entire election and its a must-win for Trump

In Little Havana, a vibrant Latino neighborhood just west of downtown Miami, a queue of a couple of dozen prospective voters had formed outside one of Hillary Clintons field offices.

Sandwiched between an insurance company and immigration counsel office, the group had arrived for tickets to a free Jennifer Lopez concert. But there was one caveat: to attend the Saturday evening show, at Bayfront Park on Miamis Biscayne Bay, fans were first required to visit a Clinton campaign field office.

theIt was one of the many creative ways in which the Democratic nominees campaign was seeking to engage likely voters in the critical battleground of Florida, a state with a key role in determining whether Clinton or her Republican opponent Donald Trump is elected on 8 November as the next president of the United States.

Florida

Inside this modest campaign space, one of 82 Clinton field offices in the Sunshine State, yellow-painted walls bore signs that read phrases such as Juntos Se Puede (Together We Can) and Why build a wall against Hispanics when they built this country?

English or Spanish? a volunteer asked as two sisters stepped into the office hoping to secure a pair of concert tickets. Spanish, they responded.

Azalia and Lucia Rodriguez, both US citizens originally from Nicaragua, had already made up their mind. Trump had hit a nerve, they said, within Floridas sprawling Hispanic community.

If you dont vote, thats an extra vote for Trump, said Lucia, a 19-year-old college student. I have family members that might be deported, and just to be safe I wouldnt vote for him.

Azalia, a 27-year-old in real estate, put it even more bluntly when asked why she was voting for Clinton: Well, Im Hispanic and I dont like what Trump says.

Turnout among Hispanic voters might sway the outcome of the election in a state where one of the fastest-growing demographics in the country holds substantial influence. A half-dozen volunteers worked the phones in both English and Spanish, targeting a list of likely Clinton supporters while making a strong push for the early voting process that began on 24 October.

The Obama campaign worked out of the same office in 2012, recognizing a shift in demographics. While the Cubans who dominated the area typically voted Republican, a younger generation has in recent years leaned Democratic; and non-Cuban Hispanics, a reliably Democratic voting bloc, also increasingly live in the area.

In 2000, a controversial recount in Florida determined whether Al Gore or George W Bush would become president. Sixteen years later, the state is still vital terrain in the presidential race Trump, trailing Clinton in other must-win swing states, needs to secure the states 29 electoral votes to have a path to victory.

How will the US election be decided?

But roughly 15 miles away, a Trump field office in West Miami one of 29 paid for by Republican Party of Florida, was bustling not with likely voters but with volunteers making do with limited resources.

A handful unloaded boxes containing just under 110,000 door hangers, while others were constructing Trump-Pence yard signs. But of over a dozen phones, only two were occupied.

Many of the volunteers, comprising mainly older Cubans, complained of an election that was rigged.

The media was in Clintons pocket, the volunteers argued, and even the Republican establishment was colluding to defeat the real estate mogul who earlier this year defied all odds to become the GOPs nominee for president.

Im here for Donald Trump, not for the Republican party, said Abraham Alvarez, a 47-year-old ramp supervisor at Miami international airport who for the last month has been volunteering for the campaign unpaid.

Have you heard of the New World Order? he added, invoking the conspiracy about a globalist elite that plans to take control of the world through authoritarian rule. The whole establishment, theyve been working on this for a long time.

To Floridians like Alvarez, the election had already been rigged in Clintons favor.

It is highly unlikely that the outcome on 8 November will be anything like that of 2000, when the result of the month-long recount over Floridas electoral votes was ultimately decided by the US supreme court after vicious partisan squabbling over hanging chads and butterfly ballots. Trumps campaign trails Clinton in the majority of public polling.

But the campaign is nonetheless likely to be just as hard-fought in a state such as Florida, which in many ways resembles a confederation of fiefdoms.

Florida
Photograph: Mapbox, OpenStreetMap

Floridas northern panhandle is the heart of the old south. Live oak trees are draped with Spanish moss and residents speak in slow southern drawls. South Florida is as much a part of the Caribbean as the United States, and Spanish is as widely spoken as English.

In between is an ethnic hodgepodge: north of Miami, in Palm Beach and Broward Counties, there are heavily Jewish enclaves descended from transplanted New Yorkers; in Orlando, there is a rapidly growing Puerto Rican community fleeing the islands economic crisis, while in the Villages, there is an entire city of over 150,000 residents who are all transplanted retirees.

Recognizing the state is beholden to neither the Democrats nor the Republicans, both Clinton and Trump graced Florida this week as the clock ticked closer to election day.

Trump held a rally on Tuesday in Tallahassee, an island of Democratic blue in deep-red north Florida where the presence of the state capitol and Florida State University makes the sleepy city comparatively liberal.

Tallahassee
Supporters cheer Donald Trump during a rally at the Antique Car Museum property on Tuesday in Tallahassee. Photograph: Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images

There, speaking in front of a farm wagon laden with pumpkins to mark the fall season, Trump made a non-specific pitch for early voting: Early voting in Florida is under way so make sure you get out and vote. We have a thing going on that theyve never seen before.

A more effective pitch was made by volunteers standing at the entrance to the rally who stood holding clipboards with forms for attendees to sign up for absentee ballots.

Clinton made a two-day swing through the state, with stops that included Broward County, a formerly Republican stronghold now solidly Democratic, and Palm Beach, home to Trumps opulent Mar-a-Lago resort.

Her venues were also strategically chosen: across the street from Clintons event in Broward on Tuesday was a polling center which hundreds who attended her rally immediately visited to vote early.

Nate Williams, 37, was accompanied by his six-year-old daughter.

She dont like Donald Trump, what he said about women, he said of his daughter, who clutched a Barbie doll while standing by his side. He was referring to the controversial tape of the Republican nominee bragging about groping women without their consent.

She dont really know the comments, Williams said. She just knows he said some real negative things about women.

Betty Joseph, a native of Haiti residing in nearby Tamarac, said she was concerned about the implications of a Trump presidency.

I believe that would be civil war, she said, emerging from the polling site after voting for Clinton. With his mouth, it could cause a lot of trouble for the country.

Early voting has long been a key indicator in Florida. In 2012, 4.8 million Floridians cast their ballots before election day, a total higher than the turnout in 44 other states.

But while Republicans have typically held the advantage in early voting, data available thus far finds Democrats encroaching on their lead. Republicans were ahead in early voting by just over 18,000 votes on Tuesday, whereas in 2008 their edge exceeded 113,000 at the same time. Hispanic participation in early voting was also up from previous cycles, likely favoring Clinton based on most public polling of the group.

Democrats also held a seven-point lead over Republicans in new registered voters, according to a memo distributed this week by Clintons Florida operation. The campaign also touted closing the longtime Republican advantage in vote-by-mail ballot requests and returns, with roughly 406,000 Democrats having returned their ballots versus 421,000 Republicans.

Clinton
Supporters of Hillary Clinton try to shake hands with the candidate at a rally at Palm Beach State College in Lake Worth, Florida, on Wednesday. Photograph: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

Even so, polling points to a competitive race with Clinton ahead of Trump by 3.5 points according to an average of public surveys compiled by various trackers.

Speaking in Coconut Creek on Tuesday, Clinton warned her supporters not to take matters for granted.

Its going to be a close election, she said at Broward Colleges North Campus, across from the early voting site. Pay no attention to the polls. Dont get complacent.

Underscoring her commitment to Florida, Clintons campaign confirmed she would return to the state as early as Saturday.

Trump, for his part, followed his Florida tour with a jaunt to Washington DC in order to cut the ribbon at his new hotel.

But the Republican nominee has not entirely ignored the need to organize voters at his rallies in the Sunshine State.

Before an event in September, inside an aircraft hangar in Melbourne, Florida, over two dozen Trump volunteers were making phone calls in an adjacent office while a crowd of thousands gathered outside listened to the Rolling Stones on loop as they awaited the former Apprentice host.

Trump supporters have long viewed crowd sizes as an indicator of their candidates prospects, despite little correlation between the number of attendees who show up at a rally and those who turn out to vote.

But as Stella Bueller of Sopchoppy, Florida, told the Guardian at Trumps rally this week: If you go back to high school, youre at a pep rally and whos the most popular guy? Everyone knows and he ends up being homecoming king. Its the same.

Brian Ballard, Trumps Florida finance chairman, said he felt confident about Trumps chances.

Theres certainly momentum, he said, citing not just internal polling but also enthusiasm for the Republican nominee as evidenced by the fact that roads were shut down around Trumps Tallahassee rally on Tuesday.

The veteran Republican lobbyist seemed less concerned about the campaigns rudimentary footprint on the ground, noting that the Republican National Committee, state party and local parties have always been the backbone of our get-out-the-vote effort.

Ballard cited conversations with Cuban American legislators to express confidence about Trumps ability to court at least a faction of Hispanic voters, noting the bloc is not monolithic. In fact, he thought, Trump would do as well as [Mitt] Romney, if not a little bit better.

But the volunteers who packed Trumps West Miami field office were somewhat less bullish.

Trump
Donald Trump rallies with supporters at the Million Air Orlando airplane hangar in Sanford, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Jorge Garces, who emigrated from Cuba in 1962, acknowledged that the Republican nominees ground game lacks a little bit.

I dont know why, said the 64-year-old retiree. Sometimes we get as many as 12 volunteers a day, sometimes as little as three.

Garces was, however, energized by what he claimed was a bias within the media about Trumps roadmap to the White House as well as a desire among grassroots conservative voters to send a signal to the establishment in their own party.

I think the Republican party has lost its message, he said, and I think Donald Trump is throwing a molotov cocktail at Washington.

As for whether Trump would emerge victorious in Florida, Garces confessed he was concerned.

Kellyanne Conway, Trumps campaign manager, acknowledged in an interview with CBS this week that the path will be much harder without Florida. But that is an understatement, given if Clinton wins the state then Trump would have to virtually sweep the remaining battleground states, including seemingly safe Democratic areas like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado.

Complicating matters is polling showing Clinton giving Trump a run for his money in deeply red states such as Arizona, Utah and even Texas, diverting the Republican nominees attention with precious little time remaining before election day.

A Republican activist at the Broward College polling site, who declined to be named due to his involvement in local races, said he reluctantly cast his ballot for Trump this week. But after watching hundreds of Democrats queue up to vote early after Clintons rally across the street from where he stood, the activist feared the writing was already on the wall.

Florida will be his death knell, he said of Trump. When youre competing in Texas and Utah two weeks before the election, its over.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/27/florida-voting-clinton-trump-election

President Trump fills world leaders with fear: ‘It’s gone from funny to really scary’

Most of the world seems to agree a Donald Trump presidency is a disturbing possibility that would inflict unthinkable damage, Guardian reporters found

Dangerous, foolish, irrational, scary, terrifying, irresponsible, a clown, a disaster. These are just some of the words used to describe the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency by politicians, diplomats and analysts around the world.

As the businessman gave his first major policy address since becoming frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination on Wednesday, Guardian correspondents in Washington and around the globe asked the international community whether it was prepared for the swaggering billionaire to occupy the White House.

Many said they still cannot believe the nation that elected its first black president just eight years ago will now rush to embrace a man who has offended Mexicans, Muslims and others. The possibility that Trump might actually win fills great swaths of the planet with dread with the apparent and notable exception of Vladimir Putins Russia with concerns over everything from trade to the nuclear trigger.

While Trump was delivering his speech in Washington, outlining a doctrine of naked self-interest that would shake the rust off Americas foreign policy, the heads of all the major UN agencies gathered in Vienna, Austria, for a strategy session with secretary general Ban Ki-moon, now in his last eight months in office.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/28/donald-trump-president-world-leaders-foreign-relations

Battle for Florida: Trump and Clinton home in on crucial state as voting begins

The two candidates have differing strategies in a state where turnout among Hispanic voters could sway the entire election and its a must-win for Trump

In Little Havana, a vibrant Latino neighborhood just west of downtown Miami, a queue of a couple of dozen prospective voters had formed outside one of Hillary Clintons field offices.

Sandwiched between an insurance company and immigration counsel office, the group had arrived for tickets to a free Jennifer Lopez concert. But there was one caveat: to attend the Saturday evening show, at Bayfront Park on Miamis Biscayne Bay, fans were first required to visit a Clinton campaign field office.

theIt was one of the many creative ways in which the Democratic nominees campaign was seeking to engage likely voters in the critical battleground of Florida, a state with a key role in determining whether Clinton or her Republican opponent Donald Trump is elected on 8 November as the next president of the United States.

Florida

Inside this modest campaign space, one of 82 Clinton field offices in the Sunshine State, yellow-painted walls bore signs that read phrases such as Juntos Se Puede (Together We Can) and Why build a wall against Hispanics when they built this country?

English or Spanish? a volunteer asked as two sisters stepped into the office hoping to secure a pair of concert tickets. Spanish, they responded.

Azalia and Lucia Rodriguez, both US citizens originally from Nicaragua, had already made up their mind. Trump had hit a nerve, they said, within Floridas sprawling Hispanic community.

If you dont vote, thats an extra vote for Trump, said Lucia, a 19-year-old college student. I have family members that might be deported, and just to be safe I wouldnt vote for him.

Azalia, a 27-year-old in real estate, put it even more bluntly when asked why she was voting for Clinton: Well, Im Hispanic and I dont like what Trump says.

Turnout among Hispanic voters might sway the outcome of the election in a state where one of the fastest-growing demographics in the country holds substantial influence. A half-dozen volunteers worked the phones in both English and Spanish, targeting a list of likely Clinton supporters while making a strong push for the early voting process that began on 24 October.

The Obama campaign worked out of the same office in 2012, recognizing a shift in demographics. While the Cubans who dominated the area typically voted Republican, a younger generation has in recent years leaned Democratic; and non-Cuban Hispanics, a reliably Democratic voting bloc, also increasingly live in the area.

In 2000, a controversial recount in Florida determined whether Al Gore or George W Bush would become president. Sixteen years later, the state is still vital terrain in the presidential race Trump, trailing Clinton in other must-win swing states, needs to secure the states 29 electoral votes to have a path to victory.

How will the US election be decided?

But roughly 15 miles away, a Trump field office in West Miami one of 29 paid for by Republican Party of Florida, was bustling not with likely voters but with volunteers making do with limited resources.

A handful unloaded boxes containing just under 110,000 door hangers, while others were constructing Trump-Pence yard signs. But of over a dozen phones, only two were occupied.

Many of the volunteers, comprising mainly older Cubans, complained of an election that was rigged.

The media was in Clintons pocket, the volunteers argued, and even the Republican establishment was colluding to defeat the real estate mogul who earlier this year defied all odds to become the GOPs nominee for president.

Im here for Donald Trump, not for the Republican party, said Abraham Alvarez, a 47-year-old ramp supervisor at Miami international airport who for the last month has been volunteering for the campaign unpaid.

Have you heard of the New World Order? he added, invoking the conspiracy about a globalist elite that plans to take control of the world through authoritarian rule. The whole establishment, theyve been working on this for a long time.

To Floridians like Alvarez, the election had already been rigged in Clintons favor.

It is highly unlikely that the outcome on 8 November will be anything like that of 2000, when the result of the month-long recount over Floridas electoral votes was ultimately decided by the US supreme court after vicious partisan squabbling over hanging chads and butterfly ballots. Trumps campaign trails Clinton in the majority of public polling.

But the campaign is nonetheless likely to be just as hard-fought in a state such as Florida, which in many ways resembles a confederation of fiefdoms.

Florida
Photograph: Mapbox, OpenStreetMap

Floridas northern panhandle is the heart of the old south. Live oak trees are draped with Spanish moss and residents speak in slow southern drawls. South Florida is as much a part of the Caribbean as the United States, and Spanish is as widely spoken as English.

In between is an ethnic hodgepodge: north of Miami, in Palm Beach and Broward Counties, there are heavily Jewish enclaves descended from transplanted New Yorkers; in Orlando, there is a rapidly growing Puerto Rican community fleeing the islands economic crisis, while in the Villages, there is an entire city of over 150,000 residents who are all transplanted retirees.

Recognizing the state is beholden to neither the Democrats nor the Republicans, both Clinton and Trump graced Florida this week as the clock ticked closer to election day.

Trump held a rally on Tuesday in Tallahassee, an island of Democratic blue in deep-red north Florida where the presence of the state capitol and Florida State University makes the sleepy city comparatively liberal.

Tallahassee
Supporters cheer Donald Trump during a rally at the Antique Car Museum property on Tuesday in Tallahassee. Photograph: Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images

There, speaking in front of a farm wagon laden with pumpkins to mark the fall season, Trump made a non-specific pitch for early voting: Early voting in Florida is under way so make sure you get out and vote. We have a thing going on that theyve never seen before.

A more effective pitch was made by volunteers standing at the entrance to the rally who stood holding clipboards with forms for attendees to sign up for absentee ballots.

Clinton made a two-day swing through the state, with stops that included Broward County, a formerly Republican stronghold now solidly Democratic, and Palm Beach, home to Trumps opulent Mar-a-Lago resort.

Her venues were also strategically chosen: across the street from Clintons event in Broward on Tuesday was a polling center which hundreds who attended her rally immediately visited to vote early.

Nate Williams, 37, was accompanied by his six-year-old daughter.

She dont like Donald Trump, what he said about women, he said of his daughter, who clutched a Barbie doll while standing by his side. He was referring to the controversial tape of the Republican nominee bragging about groping women without their consent.

She dont really know the comments, Williams said. She just knows he said some real negative things about women.

Betty Joseph, a native of Haiti residing in nearby Tamarac, said she was concerned about the implications of a Trump presidency.

I believe that would be civil war, she said, emerging from the polling site after voting for Clinton. With his mouth, it could cause a lot of trouble for the country.

Early voting has long been a key indicator in Florida. In 2012, 4.8 million Floridians cast their ballots before election day, a total higher than the turnout in 44 other states.

But while Republicans have typically held the advantage in early voting, data available thus far finds Democrats encroaching on their lead. Republicans were ahead in early voting by just over 18,000 votes on Tuesday, whereas in 2008 their edge exceeded 113,000 at the same time. Hispanic participation in early voting was also up from previous cycles, likely favoring Clinton based on most public polling of the group.

Democrats also held a seven-point lead over Republicans in new registered voters, according to a memo distributed this week by Clintons Florida operation. The campaign also touted closing the longtime Republican advantage in vote-by-mail ballot requests and returns, with roughly 406,000 Democrats having returned their ballots versus 421,000 Republicans.

Clinton
Supporters of Hillary Clinton try to shake hands with the candidate at a rally at Palm Beach State College in Lake Worth, Florida, on Wednesday. Photograph: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

Even so, polling points to a competitive race with Clinton ahead of Trump by 3.5 points according to an average of public surveys compiled by various trackers.

Speaking in Coconut Creek on Tuesday, Clinton warned her supporters not to take matters for granted.

Its going to be a close election, she said at Broward Colleges North Campus, across from the early voting site. Pay no attention to the polls. Dont get complacent.

Underscoring her commitment to Florida, Clintons campaign confirmed she would return to the state as early as Saturday.

Trump, for his part, followed his Florida tour with a jaunt to Washington DC in order to cut the ribbon at his new hotel.

But the Republican nominee has not entirely ignored the need to organize voters at his rallies in the Sunshine State.

Before an event in September, inside an aircraft hangar in Melbourne, Florida, over two dozen Trump volunteers were making phone calls in an adjacent office while a crowd of thousands gathered outside listened to the Rolling Stones on loop as they awaited the former Apprentice host.

Trump supporters have long viewed crowd sizes as an indicator of their candidates prospects, despite little correlation between the number of attendees who show up at a rally and those who turn out to vote.

But as Stella Bueller of Sopchoppy, Florida, told the Guardian at Trumps rally this week: If you go back to high school, youre at a pep rally and whos the most popular guy? Everyone knows and he ends up being homecoming king. Its the same.

Brian Ballard, Trumps Florida finance chairman, said he felt confident about Trumps chances.

Theres certainly momentum, he said, citing not just internal polling but also enthusiasm for the Republican nominee as evidenced by the fact that roads were shut down around Trumps Tallahassee rally on Tuesday.

The veteran Republican lobbyist seemed less concerned about the campaigns rudimentary footprint on the ground, noting that the Republican National Committee, state party and local parties have always been the backbone of our get-out-the-vote effort.

Ballard cited conversations with Cuban American legislators to express confidence about Trumps ability to court at least a faction of Hispanic voters, noting the bloc is not monolithic. In fact, he thought, Trump would do as well as [Mitt] Romney, if not a little bit better.

But the volunteers who packed Trumps West Miami field office were somewhat less bullish.

Trump
Donald Trump rallies with supporters at the Million Air Orlando airplane hangar in Sanford, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Jorge Garces, who emigrated from Cuba in 1962, acknowledged that the Republican nominees ground game lacks a little bit.

I dont know why, said the 64-year-old retiree. Sometimes we get as many as 12 volunteers a day, sometimes as little as three.

Garces was, however, energized by what he claimed was a bias within the media about Trumps roadmap to the White House as well as a desire among grassroots conservative voters to send a signal to the establishment in their own party.

I think the Republican party has lost its message, he said, and I think Donald Trump is throwing a molotov cocktail at Washington.

As for whether Trump would emerge victorious in Florida, Garces confessed he was concerned.

Kellyanne Conway, Trumps campaign manager, acknowledged in an interview with CBS this week that the path will be much harder without Florida. But that is an understatement, given if Clinton wins the state then Trump would have to virtually sweep the remaining battleground states, including seemingly safe Democratic areas like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado.

Complicating matters is polling showing Clinton giving Trump a run for his money in deeply red states such as Arizona, Utah and even Texas, diverting the Republican nominees attention with precious little time remaining before election day.

A Republican activist at the Broward College polling site, who declined to be named due to his involvement in local races, said he reluctantly cast his ballot for Trump this week. But after watching hundreds of Democrats queue up to vote early after Clintons rally across the street from where he stood, the activist feared the writing was already on the wall.

Florida will be his death knell, he said of Trump. When youre competing in Texas and Utah two weeks before the election, its over.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/27/florida-voting-clinton-trump-election

President Trump fills world leaders with fear: ‘It’s gone from funny to really scary’

Most of the world seems to agree a Donald Trump presidency is a disturbing possibility that would inflict unthinkable damage, Guardian reporters found

Dangerous, foolish, irrational, scary, terrifying, irresponsible, a clown, a disaster. These are just some of the words used to describe the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency by politicians, diplomats and analysts around the world.

As the businessman gave his first major policy address since becoming frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination on Wednesday, Guardian correspondents in Washington and around the globe asked the international community whether it was prepared for the swaggering billionaire to occupy the White House.

Many said they still cannot believe the nation that elected its first black president just eight years ago will now rush to embrace a man who has offended Mexicans, Muslims and others. The possibility that Trump might actually win fills great swaths of the planet with dread with the apparent and notable exception of Vladimir Putins Russia with concerns over everything from trade to the nuclear trigger.

While Trump was delivering his speech in Washington, outlining a doctrine of naked self-interest that would shake the rust off Americas foreign policy, the heads of all the major UN agencies gathered in Vienna, Austria, for a strategy session with secretary general Ban Ki-moon, now in his last eight months in office.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/28/donald-trump-president-world-leaders-foreign-relations

Battle for Florida: Trump and Clinton home in on crucial state as voting begins

The two candidates have differing strategies in a state where turnout among Hispanic voters could sway the entire election and its a must-win for Trump

In Little Havana, a vibrant Latino neighborhood just west of downtown Miami, a queue of a couple of dozen prospective voters had formed outside one of Hillary Clintons field offices.

Sandwiched between an insurance company and immigration counsel office, the group had arrived for tickets to a free Jennifer Lopez concert. But there was one caveat: to attend the Saturday evening show, at Bayfront Park on Miamis Biscayne Bay, fans were first required to visit a Clinton campaign field office.

theIt was one of the many creative ways in which the Democratic nominees campaign was seeking to engage likely voters in the critical battleground of Florida, a state with a key role in determining whether Clinton or her Republican opponent Donald Trump is elected on 8 November as the next president of the United States.

Florida

Inside this modest campaign space, one of 82 Clinton field offices in the Sunshine State, yellow-painted walls bore signs that read phrases such as Juntos Se Puede (Together We Can) and Why build a wall against Hispanics when they built this country?

English or Spanish? a volunteer asked as two sisters stepped into the office hoping to secure a pair of concert tickets. Spanish, they responded.

Azalia and Lucia Rodriguez, both US citizens originally from Nicaragua, had already made up their mind. Trump had hit a nerve, they said, within Floridas sprawling Hispanic community.

If you dont vote, thats an extra vote for Trump, said Lucia, a 19-year-old college student. I have family members that might be deported, and just to be safe I wouldnt vote for him.

Azalia, a 27-year-old in real estate, put it even more bluntly when asked why she was voting for Clinton: Well, Im Hispanic and I dont like what Trump says.

Turnout among Hispanic voters might sway the outcome of the election in a state where one of the fastest-growing demographics in the country holds substantial influence. A half-dozen volunteers worked the phones in both English and Spanish, targeting a list of likely Clinton supporters while making a strong push for the early voting process that began on 24 October.

The Obama campaign worked out of the same office in 2012, recognizing a shift in demographics. While the Cubans who dominated the area typically voted Republican, a younger generation has in recent years leaned Democratic; and non-Cuban Hispanics, a reliably Democratic voting bloc, also increasingly live in the area.

In 2000, a controversial recount in Florida determined whether Al Gore or George W Bush would become president. Sixteen years later, the state is still vital terrain in the presidential race Trump, trailing Clinton in other must-win swing states, needs to secure the states 29 electoral votes to have a path to victory.

How will the US election be decided?

But roughly 15 miles away, a Trump field office in West Miami one of 29 paid for by Republican Party of Florida, was bustling not with likely voters but with volunteers making do with limited resources.

A handful unloaded boxes containing just under 110,000 door hangers, while others were constructing Trump-Pence yard signs. But of over a dozen phones, only two were occupied.

Many of the volunteers, comprising mainly older Cubans, complained of an election that was rigged.

The media was in Clintons pocket, the volunteers argued, and even the Republican establishment was colluding to defeat the real estate mogul who earlier this year defied all odds to become the GOPs nominee for president.

Im here for Donald Trump, not for the Republican party, said Abraham Alvarez, a 47-year-old ramp supervisor at Miami international airport who for the last month has been volunteering for the campaign unpaid.

Have you heard of the New World Order? he added, invoking the conspiracy about a globalist elite that plans to take control of the world through authoritarian rule. The whole establishment, theyve been working on this for a long time.

To Floridians like Alvarez, the election had already been rigged in Clintons favor.

It is highly unlikely that the outcome on 8 November will be anything like that of 2000, when the result of the month-long recount over Floridas electoral votes was ultimately decided by the US supreme court after vicious partisan squabbling over hanging chads and butterfly ballots. Trumps campaign trails Clinton in the majority of public polling.

But the campaign is nonetheless likely to be just as hard-fought in a state such as Florida, which in many ways resembles a confederation of fiefdoms.

Florida
Photograph: Mapbox, OpenStreetMap

Floridas northern panhandle is the heart of the old south. Live oak trees are draped with Spanish moss and residents speak in slow southern drawls. South Florida is as much a part of the Caribbean as the United States, and Spanish is as widely spoken as English.

In between is an ethnic hodgepodge: north of Miami, in Palm Beach and Broward Counties, there are heavily Jewish enclaves descended from transplanted New Yorkers; in Orlando, there is a rapidly growing Puerto Rican community fleeing the islands economic crisis, while in the Villages, there is an entire city of over 150,000 residents who are all transplanted retirees.

Recognizing the state is beholden to neither the Democrats nor the Republicans, both Clinton and Trump graced Florida this week as the clock ticked closer to election day.

Trump held a rally on Tuesday in Tallahassee, an island of Democratic blue in deep-red north Florida where the presence of the state capitol and Florida State University makes the sleepy city comparatively liberal.

Tallahassee
Supporters cheer Donald Trump during a rally at the Antique Car Museum property on Tuesday in Tallahassee. Photograph: Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images

There, speaking in front of a farm wagon laden with pumpkins to mark the fall season, Trump made a non-specific pitch for early voting: Early voting in Florida is under way so make sure you get out and vote. We have a thing going on that theyve never seen before.

A more effective pitch was made by volunteers standing at the entrance to the rally who stood holding clipboards with forms for attendees to sign up for absentee ballots.

Clinton made a two-day swing through the state, with stops that included Broward County, a formerly Republican stronghold now solidly Democratic, and Palm Beach, home to Trumps opulent Mar-a-Lago resort.

Her venues were also strategically chosen: across the street from Clintons event in Broward on Tuesday was a polling center which hundreds who attended her rally immediately visited to vote early.

Nate Williams, 37, was accompanied by his six-year-old daughter.

She dont like Donald Trump, what he said about women, he said of his daughter, who clutched a Barbie doll while standing by his side. He was referring to the controversial tape of the Republican nominee bragging about groping women without their consent.

She dont really know the comments, Williams said. She just knows he said some real negative things about women.

Betty Joseph, a native of Haiti residing in nearby Tamarac, said she was concerned about the implications of a Trump presidency.

I believe that would be civil war, she said, emerging from the polling site after voting for Clinton. With his mouth, it could cause a lot of trouble for the country.

Early voting has long been a key indicator in Florida. In 2012, 4.8 million Floridians cast their ballots before election day, a total higher than the turnout in 44 other states.

But while Republicans have typically held the advantage in early voting, data available thus far finds Democrats encroaching on their lead. Republicans were ahead in early voting by just over 18,000 votes on Tuesday, whereas in 2008 their edge exceeded 113,000 at the same time. Hispanic participation in early voting was also up from previous cycles, likely favoring Clinton based on most public polling of the group.

Democrats also held a seven-point lead over Republicans in new registered voters, according to a memo distributed this week by Clintons Florida operation. The campaign also touted closing the longtime Republican advantage in vote-by-mail ballot requests and returns, with roughly 406,000 Democrats having returned their ballots versus 421,000 Republicans.

Clinton
Supporters of Hillary Clinton try to shake hands with the candidate at a rally at Palm Beach State College in Lake Worth, Florida, on Wednesday. Photograph: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

Even so, polling points to a competitive race with Clinton ahead of Trump by 3.5 points according to an average of public surveys compiled by various trackers.

Speaking in Coconut Creek on Tuesday, Clinton warned her supporters not to take matters for granted.

Its going to be a close election, she said at Broward Colleges North Campus, across from the early voting site. Pay no attention to the polls. Dont get complacent.

Underscoring her commitment to Florida, Clintons campaign confirmed she would return to the state as early as Saturday.

Trump, for his part, followed his Florida tour with a jaunt to Washington DC in order to cut the ribbon at his new hotel.

But the Republican nominee has not entirely ignored the need to organize voters at his rallies in the Sunshine State.

Before an event in September, inside an aircraft hangar in Melbourne, Florida, over two dozen Trump volunteers were making phone calls in an adjacent office while a crowd of thousands gathered outside listened to the Rolling Stones on loop as they awaited the former Apprentice host.

Trump supporters have long viewed crowd sizes as an indicator of their candidates prospects, despite little correlation between the number of attendees who show up at a rally and those who turn out to vote.

But as Stella Bueller of Sopchoppy, Florida, told the Guardian at Trumps rally this week: If you go back to high school, youre at a pep rally and whos the most popular guy? Everyone knows and he ends up being homecoming king. Its the same.

Brian Ballard, Trumps Florida finance chairman, said he felt confident about Trumps chances.

Theres certainly momentum, he said, citing not just internal polling but also enthusiasm for the Republican nominee as evidenced by the fact that roads were shut down around Trumps Tallahassee rally on Tuesday.

The veteran Republican lobbyist seemed less concerned about the campaigns rudimentary footprint on the ground, noting that the Republican National Committee, state party and local parties have always been the backbone of our get-out-the-vote effort.

Ballard cited conversations with Cuban American legislators to express confidence about Trumps ability to court at least a faction of Hispanic voters, noting the bloc is not monolithic. In fact, he thought, Trump would do as well as [Mitt] Romney, if not a little bit better.

But the volunteers who packed Trumps West Miami field office were somewhat less bullish.

Trump
Donald Trump rallies with supporters at the Million Air Orlando airplane hangar in Sanford, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Jorge Garces, who emigrated from Cuba in 1962, acknowledged that the Republican nominees ground game lacks a little bit.

I dont know why, said the 64-year-old retiree. Sometimes we get as many as 12 volunteers a day, sometimes as little as three.

Garces was, however, energized by what he claimed was a bias within the media about Trumps roadmap to the White House as well as a desire among grassroots conservative voters to send a signal to the establishment in their own party.

I think the Republican party has lost its message, he said, and I think Donald Trump is throwing a molotov cocktail at Washington.

As for whether Trump would emerge victorious in Florida, Garces confessed he was concerned.

Kellyanne Conway, Trumps campaign manager, acknowledged in an interview with CBS this week that the path will be much harder without Florida. But that is an understatement, given if Clinton wins the state then Trump would have to virtually sweep the remaining battleground states, including seemingly safe Democratic areas like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado.

Complicating matters is polling showing Clinton giving Trump a run for his money in deeply red states such as Arizona, Utah and even Texas, diverting the Republican nominees attention with precious little time remaining before election day.

A Republican activist at the Broward College polling site, who declined to be named due to his involvement in local races, said he reluctantly cast his ballot for Trump this week. But after watching hundreds of Democrats queue up to vote early after Clintons rally across the street from where he stood, the activist feared the writing was already on the wall.

Florida will be his death knell, he said of Trump. When youre competing in Texas and Utah two weeks before the election, its over.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/27/florida-voting-clinton-trump-election

Battle for Florida: Trump and Clinton home in on crucial state as voting begins

The two candidates have differing strategies in a state where turnout among Hispanic voters could sway the entire election and its a must-win for Trump

In Little Havana, a vibrant Latino neighborhood just west of downtown Miami, a queue of a couple of dozen prospective voters had formed outside one of Hillary Clintons field offices.

Sandwiched between an insurance company and immigration counsel office, the group had arrived for tickets to a free Jennifer Lopez concert. But there was one caveat: to attend the Saturday evening show, at Bayfront Park on Miamis Biscayne Bay, fans were first required to visit a Clinton campaign field office.

theIt was one of the many creative ways in which the Democratic nominees campaign was seeking to engage likely voters in the critical battleground of Florida, a state with a key role in determining whether Clinton or her Republican opponent Donald Trump is elected on 8 November as the next president of the United States.

Florida

Inside this modest campaign space, one of 82 Clinton field offices in the Sunshine State, yellow-painted walls bore signs that read phrases such as Juntos Se Puede (Together We Can) and Why build a wall against Hispanics when they built this country?

English or Spanish? a volunteer asked as two sisters stepped into the office hoping to secure a pair of concert tickets. Spanish, they responded.

Azalia and Lucia Rodriguez, both US citizens originally from Nicaragua, had already made up their mind. Trump had hit a nerve, they said, within Floridas sprawling Hispanic community.

If you dont vote, thats an extra vote for Trump, said Lucia, a 19-year-old college student. I have family members that might be deported, and just to be safe I wouldnt vote for him.

Azalia, a 27-year-old in real estate, put it even more bluntly when asked why she was voting for Clinton: Well, Im Hispanic and I dont like what Trump says.

Turnout among Hispanic voters might sway the outcome of the election in a state where one of the fastest-growing demographics in the country holds substantial influence. A half-dozen volunteers worked the phones in both English and Spanish, targeting a list of likely Clinton supporters while making a strong push for the early voting process that began on 24 October.

The Obama campaign worked out of the same office in 2012, recognizing a shift in demographics. While the Cubans who dominated the area typically voted Republican, a younger generation has in recent years leaned Democratic; and non-Cuban Hispanics, a reliably Democratic voting bloc, also increasingly live in the area.

In 2000, a controversial recount in Florida determined whether Al Gore or George W Bush would become president. Sixteen years later, the state is still vital terrain in the presidential race Trump, trailing Clinton in other must-win swing states, needs to secure the states 29 electoral votes to have a path to victory.

How will the US election be decided?

But roughly 15 miles away, a Trump field office in West Miami one of 29 paid for by Republican Party of Florida, was bustling not with likely voters but with volunteers making do with limited resources.

A handful unloaded boxes containing just under 110,000 door hangers, while others were constructing Trump-Pence yard signs. But of over a dozen phones, only two were occupied.

Many of the volunteers, comprising mainly older Cubans, complained of an election that was rigged.

The media was in Clintons pocket, the volunteers argued, and even the Republican establishment was colluding to defeat the real estate mogul who earlier this year defied all odds to become the GOPs nominee for president.

Im here for Donald Trump, not for the Republican party, said Abraham Alvarez, a 47-year-old ramp supervisor at Miami international airport who for the last month has been volunteering for the campaign unpaid.

Have you heard of the New World Order? he added, invoking the conspiracy about a globalist elite that plans to take control of the world through authoritarian rule. The whole establishment, theyve been working on this for a long time.

To Floridians like Alvarez, the election had already been rigged in Clintons favor.

It is highly unlikely that the outcome on 8 November will be anything like that of 2000, when the result of the month-long recount over Floridas electoral votes was ultimately decided by the US supreme court after vicious partisan squabbling over hanging chads and butterfly ballots. Trumps campaign trails Clinton in the majority of public polling.

But the campaign is nonetheless likely to be just as hard-fought in a state such as Florida, which in many ways resembles a confederation of fiefdoms.

Florida
Photograph: Mapbox, OpenStreetMap

Floridas northern panhandle is the heart of the old south. Live oak trees are draped with Spanish moss and residents speak in slow southern drawls. South Florida is as much a part of the Caribbean as the United States, and Spanish is as widely spoken as English.

In between is an ethnic hodgepodge: north of Miami, in Palm Beach and Broward Counties, there are heavily Jewish enclaves descended from transplanted New Yorkers; in Orlando, there is a rapidly growing Puerto Rican community fleeing the islands economic crisis, while in the Villages, there is an entire city of over 150,000 residents who are all transplanted retirees.

Recognizing the state is beholden to neither the Democrats nor the Republicans, both Clinton and Trump graced Florida this week as the clock ticked closer to election day.

Trump held a rally on Tuesday in Tallahassee, an island of Democratic blue in deep-red north Florida where the presence of the state capitol and Florida State University makes the sleepy city comparatively liberal.

Tallahassee
Supporters cheer Donald Trump during a rally at the Antique Car Museum property on Tuesday in Tallahassee. Photograph: Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images

There, speaking in front of a farm wagon laden with pumpkins to mark the fall season, Trump made a non-specific pitch for early voting: Early voting in Florida is under way so make sure you get out and vote. We have a thing going on that theyve never seen before.

A more effective pitch was made by volunteers standing at the entrance to the rally who stood holding clipboards with forms for attendees to sign up for absentee ballots.

Clinton made a two-day swing through the state, with stops that included Broward County, a formerly Republican stronghold now solidly Democratic, and Palm Beach, home to Trumps opulent Mar-a-Lago resort.

Her venues were also strategically chosen: across the street from Clintons event in Broward on Tuesday was a polling center which hundreds who attended her rally immediately visited to vote early.

Nate Williams, 37, was accompanied by his six-year-old daughter.

She dont like Donald Trump, what he said about women, he said of his daughter, who clutched a Barbie doll while standing by his side. He was referring to the controversial tape of the Republican nominee bragging about groping women without their consent.

She dont really know the comments, Williams said. She just knows he said some real negative things about women.

Betty Joseph, a native of Haiti residing in nearby Tamarac, said she was concerned about the implications of a Trump presidency.

I believe that would be civil war, she said, emerging from the polling site after voting for Clinton. With his mouth, it could cause a lot of trouble for the country.

Early voting has long been a key indicator in Florida. In 2012, 4.8 million Floridians cast their ballots before election day, a total higher than the turnout in 44 other states.

But while Republicans have typically held the advantage in early voting, data available thus far finds Democrats encroaching on their lead. Republicans were ahead in early voting by just over 18,000 votes on Tuesday, whereas in 2008 their edge exceeded 113,000 at the same time. Hispanic participation in early voting was also up from previous cycles, likely favoring Clinton based on most public polling of the group.

Democrats also held a seven-point lead over Republicans in new registered voters, according to a memo distributed this week by Clintons Florida operation. The campaign also touted closing the longtime Republican advantage in vote-by-mail ballot requests and returns, with roughly 406,000 Democrats having returned their ballots versus 421,000 Republicans.

Clinton
Supporters of Hillary Clinton try to shake hands with the candidate at a rally at Palm Beach State College in Lake Worth, Florida, on Wednesday. Photograph: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

Even so, polling points to a competitive race with Clinton ahead of Trump by 3.5 points according to an average of public surveys compiled by various trackers.

Speaking in Coconut Creek on Tuesday, Clinton warned her supporters not to take matters for granted.

Its going to be a close election, she said at Broward Colleges North Campus, across from the early voting site. Pay no attention to the polls. Dont get complacent.

Underscoring her commitment to Florida, Clintons campaign confirmed she would return to the state as early as Saturday.

Trump, for his part, followed his Florida tour with a jaunt to Washington DC in order to cut the ribbon at his new hotel.

But the Republican nominee has not entirely ignored the need to organize voters at his rallies in the Sunshine State.

Before an event in September, inside an aircraft hangar in Melbourne, Florida, over two dozen Trump volunteers were making phone calls in an adjacent office while a crowd of thousands gathered outside listened to the Rolling Stones on loop as they awaited the former Apprentice host.

Trump supporters have long viewed crowd sizes as an indicator of their candidates prospects, despite little correlation between the number of attendees who show up at a rally and those who turn out to vote.

But as Stella Bueller of Sopchoppy, Florida, told the Guardian at Trumps rally this week: If you go back to high school, youre at a pep rally and whos the most popular guy? Everyone knows and he ends up being homecoming king. Its the same.

Brian Ballard, Trumps Florida finance chairman, said he felt confident about Trumps chances.

Theres certainly momentum, he said, citing not just internal polling but also enthusiasm for the Republican nominee as evidenced by the fact that roads were shut down around Trumps Tallahassee rally on Tuesday.

The veteran Republican lobbyist seemed less concerned about the campaigns rudimentary footprint on the ground, noting that the Republican National Committee, state party and local parties have always been the backbone of our get-out-the-vote effort.

Ballard cited conversations with Cuban American legislators to express confidence about Trumps ability to court at least a faction of Hispanic voters, noting the bloc is not monolithic. In fact, he thought, Trump would do as well as [Mitt] Romney, if not a little bit better.

But the volunteers who packed Trumps West Miami field office were somewhat less bullish.

Trump
Donald Trump rallies with supporters at the Million Air Orlando airplane hangar in Sanford, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Jorge Garces, who emigrated from Cuba in 1962, acknowledged that the Republican nominees ground game lacks a little bit.

I dont know why, said the 64-year-old retiree. Sometimes we get as many as 12 volunteers a day, sometimes as little as three.

Garces was, however, energized by what he claimed was a bias within the media about Trumps roadmap to the White House as well as a desire among grassroots conservative voters to send a signal to the establishment in their own party.

I think the Republican party has lost its message, he said, and I think Donald Trump is throwing a molotov cocktail at Washington.

As for whether Trump would emerge victorious in Florida, Garces confessed he was concerned.

Kellyanne Conway, Trumps campaign manager, acknowledged in an interview with CBS this week that the path will be much harder without Florida. But that is an understatement, given if Clinton wins the state then Trump would have to virtually sweep the remaining battleground states, including seemingly safe Democratic areas like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado.

Complicating matters is polling showing Clinton giving Trump a run for his money in deeply red states such as Arizona, Utah and even Texas, diverting the Republican nominees attention with precious little time remaining before election day.

A Republican activist at the Broward College polling site, who declined to be named due to his involvement in local races, said he reluctantly cast his ballot for Trump this week. But after watching hundreds of Democrats queue up to vote early after Clintons rally across the street from where he stood, the activist feared the writing was already on the wall.

Florida will be his death knell, he said of Trump. When youre competing in Texas and Utah two weeks before the election, its over.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/27/florida-voting-clinton-trump-election

Bernie Sanders is not the threat to Hillary Clinton he may appear to be | Richard Wolffe

The 2016 election cycle is yet again about change. But this time, the prize will go to the candidate who can capture the desire for reform and progress while also reassuring voters they can navigate a dangerous world

The political contest between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton is often compared to the epic Democratic struggle between Clinton and then-senator Barack Obama eight years ago.

Pundits speculate whether Clinton will once again see her lifelong ambition thwarted by an insurgent campaign written off by the political and media establishment. They wonder if young Democrats will be tired of the same old Clinton dysfunction and invest their emotions in hope, change and big rallies.

Will the glass ceiling remain cracked but not broken?

The answer is almost certainly no. After several years of slow economic growth, Republican obstruction and a winding down of wars, Democrats may be frustrated, but they are not angry and hungry for Change as they were in 2008.

A real insurgent like Barack Obama or Jimmy Carter needs to win in Iowa, where the caucuses begin in just six weeks. But recent polls, despite their flaws, suggest Clinton is leading there by a margin of between 10 and 20 points. By comparison, in late 2007, the contest in Iowa was pretty much tied; Obama was even leading Clinton by three points in the respected Des Moines Register poll.

This Sanders-Clinton contest is a re-run but not of that thrilling 2008 drama. Its much closer to the two nomination fights before that: Howard Dean versus John Kerry in 2004 and Bill Bradley versus Al Gore in 2000.

Like Kerry and Gore before her, Clinton is a serious policy wonk with a desperately dull campaign style who is the clear choice of donors and elected officials. Kerry and Gore were also miserable at retail politics and when they tried to connect, they often tried too hard; The forced friendliness had all the qualities of an old car clutch grinding its gears.

The liberal grassroots yearned, as they always do, for some old-fashioned passion, for some wistful dream-that-shall-not-die. So then as now, they glommed on to two wonderfully lost causes: Bill Bradley, who had the kind of star power and national respect that frankly Sanders doesnt; and Howard Dean, who fired up his crowds with his energy (You have the power!) and his Sanders-like economic message (Even Costa Rica has healthcare and so should you!).

In Iowa, Bradley won the endorsement of the Des Moines Register and the polls suggested he was closing in on the vice-president. But Gore trounced him by 19 points on caucus day, and the nomination contest was over as soon as it started.

Four years later Dean, a Vermont Democrat like Sanders, was riding another youthful wave of insurgent support, speaking truth to power and the party establishment. By December 2003, Dean had won Al Gores endorsement and was leading Kerry by 20 points in national polls. Newsweek (where I once worked) had sent to the printers a cover story of the Vermont governor as the Democratic frontrunner, complete with a grimacing portrait of the candidate in some kind of wrestlers stance.

Then Saddam Hussein was dramatically captured in a spider hole outside a farmhouse: the Newsweek presses were abruptly halted; and the political mood even among Democrats turned back towards foreign policy.

Dean came third in the Iowa caucuses, losing to Kerry by 20 points. The night of his loss, he tried to fire up the crowd one more time by rolling up his sleeves and yelping. The scream sounded as manic in person as it looked on camera.

After Paris and San Bernardino, Bernie Sanders is having his moment of Saddam-Hussein-in-a-spider-hole. The attacks have shifted the debate away from income inequality Sanders strong suit and back to world affairs. That shift threatens to leave Sanders behind.

Like Dean, Sanders discusses foreign policy in a vague and passionless style that is nothing like his regular rhetoric. In his Guardian interview, he said: We have to be smart and not just tough. And that means its not just destroying Isis, its making sure we do it in a way that leads to a better future and more stability in that region.

Well, yes: the destroying Isis part is 99% of the challenge. And the better, more stable future is of course completely dependent on that bit about destroying Isis.

Sanders also railed against unilateral American action, as if anyone serious is proposing an Iraq-style approach to Isis. Ted Cruz may want to carpet bomb the region, and Chris Christie may be happy to shoot down Russian fighter jets but Sanders isnt running against them just yet. Apart from taking a swipe at Clinton for her vote on the Iraq war, his opposition to unilateral action is little more than Democratic boilerplate.

The senator wants to see Muslim boots on the ground, like just about everyone else running for president. And he asserts the rest of the world can simply make that happen: I think the United States, UK, France, Germany, Russia have the power to make sure that there are Muslim boots on the ground.

If only that were true. Those powers are not even talking about the same kind of boots: Russia is very happy to see many Muslim boots on the ground, as long as they are all following Assads orders.

Bernie Sanders is, of course, not rallying crowds to his message about multilateral diplomacy. He is first and foremost talking about an economy that has squeezed the middle class for decades, and it is on that ground that he has tapped into something very real for a younger generation that grew up after 9/11 and began their careers in the midst of the Great Recession. The threat of terrorism destroyed their confidence in national security, just as the financial collapse destroyed their sense of economic security.

I think we have shifted the debate, Sanders said.

Its very hard for any campaign to look around and see hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic people coming to our meetings, who are the future People are looking at that and thinking, My God, if we are worried about the future of the Democratic party, we had better start listening and paying attention to what Sanders supporters want.

But Sanders hasnt shifted the debate; like Labours Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, the debate has shifted to him. Young Democrats along with the rest of the middle class want an economic future that looks nothing like the last 15 years.

The good news for Clinton is that most of those Sanders supporters are happy with her as the partys nominee: 59% of them are fine with her winning the Democratic contest, according to a Monmouth University poll this week.

The 2016 election cycle is yet another election about change, but, this time, the prize will go to the candidate who can capture the desire for reform and progress while also reassuring voters they can navigate a dangerous world.

Eight years ago, Clinton ran under what sounded like a garbled slogan of Change-Plus-Experience. For Democrats disgusted with President Bush, it failed because they only wanted to hear about change.

In todays world of wage stagnation and terrorism threats, Change-Plus-Experience may still be a clunky phrase. But its a message that might just fit the mood of a grumpy and nervy electorate.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/18/bernie-sanders-not-the-threat-to-hillary-clinton-2016-presidential-election